West Coast Snowpack Vanishes Early, Signaling Troubled Summer for Pacific Crest Trail Hikers

Published March 26, 2026, 05:05 AM. A stark crimson hue dominates the current West Coast snowpack map, painting a grim picture for the upcoming hiking season. Examining the data from the USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service, a troubling trend emerges: basins across California, Oregon, and Washington are experiencing significantly below-average snow-water equivalent (SWE). The Klamath basin in Northern California is a prime example, registering a mere 6 percent of its 30-year median SWE. Similarly, Oregon’s Willamette and Deschutes basins are at a concerning 13 and 17 percent, respectively. While the southern Sierra Nevada and northern Cascade ranges are faring comparatively better, reaching approximately 70 percent of their median, sustained daily temperatures in the 60s are accelerating the melt at an alarming rate. This rapid depletion of snowpack comes at a critical juncture for Pacific Crest Trail (PCT) aspirants, as northbound thru-hikers prepare to embark on their ambitious journeys, and section and southbound hikers finalize their summer expedition plans.

"It’s been a historic season, and not in a good sense," stated Matt Warbritton, supervisory hydrologist for the USDA’s Oregon Snow Survey Program, underscoring the unprecedented nature of the current hydrological conditions. As the Western United States braces for what is increasingly anticipated to be a hot and arid summer, PCT hikers must meticulously re-evaluate their strategies and expectations.

The rapid disappearance of snowpack presents a significant challenge for northbound PCT thru-hikers, particularly as they approach Kennedy Meadows in California. This crucial waypoint, situated approximately 700 miles into the trail, traditionally marks the transition from the arid desert landscape to the formidable High Sierra. Hikers typically begin to focus on high-elevation snow conditions as they set their sights on Forester Pass, the trail’s highest point, located a mere 75 miles further north. For the vast majority of northbound thru-hikers arriving at Kennedy Meadows in late May or early June, the anticipated snow conditions ahead are usually manageable. However, this year’s data suggests a different reality. Currently, the southern Sierra Nevada is reporting SWE at 66 percent of its median, with a pronounced downward trajectory due to persistent warm temperatures triggering an early and aggressive melt.

Andy Reising, Manager of the Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit at the California Department of Water Resources, elaborated on the accelerated melt cycle. "When we talk about backpacking, it’s going to be regional, but the bottom line is that it’s all coming off quickly right now," Reising observed. He further emphasized the deviation from historical patterns: "While we typically peak and see the runoff after April 1, this year, the majority of it is coming off a month or five weeks early." This significantly earlier runoff has profound implications for water availability and trail conditions throughout the summer.

The situation is equally concerning for southbound thru-hikers commencing their journeys from the northern terminus in Washington. Karin Bumbaco, deputy state climatologist at the University of Washington, provided a sobering assessment of the winter’s performance. "From October through February, this winter has ranked as the third warmest water year on record for Washington going back to 1895," Bumbaco explained. "It’s been really warm, and we’ve seen over and over again, maybe there’s decent precipitation, but it’s not falling as snow in the mountains." This pattern of warm precipitation, even when present, fails to accumulate as significant snowpack, which is vital for sustained water supply throughout the warmer months.

The seasonal outlook for the upcoming spring further reinforces these concerns, indicating a high probability of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation across the Pacific Northwest. Hikers planning to begin their southbound treks in June should anticipate encountering some snow in the higher elevations of the North Cascades. However, overall, the trail is expected to be passable for most hikers by early summer, albeit with altered water source dynamics. Bumbaco drew a historical parallel, stating, "Right now, we’re trending pretty close to what 2001 looked like in terms of our snowpack. In that year in particular, on average for Washington state, we were melted out by early June." This historical comparison suggests a swift end to the snow season, necessitating proactive planning for water and potential snow-free travel.

Beyond the immediate concern of snowpack, the rapid melt and diminished snow levels have significant implications for river and stream crossings, a notorious hazard for PCT hikers. Drownings resulting from challenging water crossings remain one of the leading causes of fatalities on the trail, according to data compiled by Halfway Anywhere. Wilderness areas such as Glacier Peak in Washington and Yosemite National Park in California are particularly susceptible to dramatic fluctuations in river levels, which can change rapidly based on weather patterns. This year, observers anticipate that river levels will not only peak but also recede earlier than usual across the entire West, potentially before many hikers even reach these critical crossing points.

Reising elaborated on the projected timing of peak river flows in California. "The California-Nevada River Forecast Center is predicting the peak flows for a lot of the central and southern basins would be about the end of March," he reported. "The flows will likely be decreasing after April 1, which is a lot earlier than other years." This accelerated peak and decline in river flows mean that hikers who traditionally rely on higher spring flows for easier crossings might find themselves navigating lower, potentially more challenging, or even dry, riverbeds later in the season.

In Washington, Bumbaco also foresees an early peak in river levels, projecting below-average stream flows by the end of the summer. Oregon presents a similar scenario, though its unique volcanic geology offers a degree of mitigation. Warbritton explained, "As it stands now, if we look at stream flow forecast over the entire season, it’s below normal. But in general in the Oregon Cascades, the rock acts as a sponge and some of that water is stored for a very long time and feeds streams so that they are more perennial as opposed to intermittent." This geological characteristic provides a slight buffer, ensuring more consistent water availability in some Oregon sections compared to other regions.

The confluence of a dry winter, early snowmelt, and a potential for increased aridity raises significant concerns about wildfire risk throughout the PCT corridor. While a dry winter does not definitively guarantee a severe fire season, as spring and summer precipitation can still contribute to soil and vegetation moisture, the current conditions have undeniably set the stage for elevated fire danger across the region. Warbritton articulated the compounding factors for Oregon: "If we view it as a recipe, we’re adding in ingredients early in the season for the potential for a more extreme and prolonged fire season."

The early melt not only contributes to drier vegetation but also increases the possibility of earlier fire ignitions. This means that wildfire season could potentially overlap with the peak backpacking season across considerable portions of the PCT. Reising highlighted this risk for Northern California: "We’ve had those years where it starts in June. Northern California could experience some of that with the early melt and low snowpack this year." The prospect of encountering active wildfires on the trail adds a layer of complexity and danger that hikers must meticulously plan for.

In light of these challenging conditions, proactive preparation is paramount for all PCT hikers. Abby Smith, who is scheduled to begin her northbound thru-hike on May 5, expressed cautious optimism regarding trail conditions, despite acknowledging the fire risk. "I’m not expecting much snow," Smith remarked, adding a detail that underscores the shift in expected conditions: "I have an ice axe that I’m debating whether to send to Kennedy Meadows South, and I feel like there’s a chance that I don’t need one." This sentiment reflects a broader understanding among experienced hikers that traditional gear choices might need reevaluation based on current snowpack data.

For hikers planning their expeditions, veteran PCT thru-hikers offer invaluable advice on navigating these altered environmental realities. Comprehensive pre-trip planning, as detailed in resources for PCT thru-hikers, becomes even more critical. This includes meticulous research into current snowpack and melt-out dates for specific sections of the trail, real-time monitoring of weather forecasts and fire advisories, and a thorough understanding of water source reliability. Hikers should also be prepared to adjust their itineraries, carry extra water purification methods, and have contingency plans in place should trail sections become impassable due to wildfires or other unforeseen circumstances. The diminished snowpack and accelerated melt are not merely statistical anomalies; they represent a tangible shift in the trail’s environment, demanding a heightened level of preparedness and adaptability from every PCT adventurer. The coming months will undoubtedly test the resilience of both the trail and those who seek to traverse it.