BY RAFAT ALI · FOUNDER & CEO, SKIFT The most potent advice I can offer any aspiring entrepreneur aiming to launch a travel startup, gleaned from fourteen years of building Skift, is this: do not merely start a travel startup; instead, strategically position yourself within a travel power struggle. The global travel industry, a colossal $10 trillion behemoth, is often presented in pitch decks as an open invitation to opportunity due to its sheer size. However, this gargantuan scale does not automatically translate into accessible opportunities. This immense spending is distributed across a highly fragmented landscape, governed by disparate local regulations, complex operational realities, diverse payment infrastructures, and deeply emotional consumer decision-making processes. While founders often recognize the industry’s magnitude, they frequently underestimate the profound difficulty of effectively penetrating it. The allure of scale comes with the inescapable reality that you cannot bypass complexity and still expect to capture that scale. For nearly a decade and a half, I have had a front-row seat to the launch, pitching, funding, pivoting, and eventual demise of countless travel startups. Throughout this period, Skift has cultivated a unique set of frameworks for dissecting and understanding this intricate industry. I have adapted fourteen of these analytical lenses specifically for founders, organizing them into three distinct sections. At their core, these insights revolve around a singular, crucial question: where is the next dollar in travel flowing, and more importantly, who is dictating its direction? FOURTEEN LAYERS, THREE PARTS. PART I · WHERE POWER SITS. Before embarking on the construction of any venture, a fundamental understanding of existing power dynamics is paramount. LAYER 01 / 14 · Permission to Exist. The foundational inquiry for any startup should be: what inherent structural advantage grants us the legitimacy to operate within this industry? Skift’s "Permission to Exist" framework, which I detailed a year ago, rigorously evaluates a company’s right to occupy its space in the travel ecosystem by posing five critical questions. Firstly, can the established channels for discovering and booking travel actually perceive and commoditize your offering? Secondly, when a trip inevitably goes awry, are you the entity that the traveler holds accountable? This assignment of blame, while seemingly a liability, is in fact irrefutable evidence of your significance. Thirdly, is there a genuine demand for your product or service, such that individuals specifically seek you out by name, rather than being passively presented with options by an intermediary? Fourthly, do you maintain ownership of the transaction itself – encompassing the checkout process, the payment, and crucially, the customer record? Finally, does the fundamental infrastructure of the travel industry flow through your operations? Every significant disruption in travel distribution necessitates a re-evaluation of these questions. The internet fundamentally reshaped the role of travel agents, Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) recalibrated the relationship between hotels and consumers, and now, AI-powered agents are poised to redefine the landscape for virtually every player. While the core questions remain constant, the criteria for a satisfactory answer are perpetually evolving. A nascent startup, by its very definition, cannot yet definitively prove its answers to these questions. However, it possesses the strategic agency to decide which of these five pillars it intends to conquer. These questions should serve as a comprehensive design brief, guiding founders to consciously select the areas they aim to dominate and to make every strategic trade-off with deliberate intent. Consider Airbnb’s strategic decision to keep its inventory inaccessible to emerging AI agents, a stark contrast to Booking and Expedia, which actively integrated with platforms like ChatGPT. Airbnb’s ability to assert this refusal is directly attributable to its established brand recognition, where travelers proactively seek them out by name. A smaller reseller, similarly excluded from these AI agents, finds itself in an identical predicament, yet without the foundational brand equity. This distinction underscores the critical difference between strategic choice and imposed limitation. Furthermore, it is imperative to juxtapose these strategic choices against the sheer scale of the incumbents one is challenging. Booking Holdings, for instance, allocates an astonishing $8 billion annually to marketing, an amount that frequently surpasses the entirety of venture capital invested in travel startups globally within a given year. The assertion of "we have better UX" is insufficient to address any of the five critical questions; while superior user experience can cultivate product affection, it rarely confers structural control. If a company cannot provide a compelling answer to at least one of these fundamental questions, it may not possess a viable company but rather a mere feature. Features are susceptible to replication or, worse, absorption – a fate that befell Hipmunk, once lauded for its unparalleled travel search interface. Acquired by SAP Concur, it was ultimately deactivated just over three years later. Superior user experience, in this context, proved to be a poor substitute for genuine permission to exist. PLATE 01 · THE FIVE QUESTIONS, 2026 EVIDENCE STANDARDS. TAP EACH. 1. Discoverability · can agents see and read your inventory? PASSING: Structured and bookable by third-party agents today, with no human intervention required. 2. Accountability · who gets blamed when the trip goes wrong? PASSING: The traveler holds you responsible and returns to you for resolution. Blame is a tangible indicator of your importance. 3. Brand preference · does anyone ask for you by name? PASSING: Travelers specifically request your brand and would reject any substitute. 4. Transaction ownership · who owns the booking itself? PASSING: You manage the checkout, the payment processing, and maintain the customer record, even when demand originates from external sources. 5. Structural dependency · does the plumbing run through you? PASSING: Other entities cannot conduct transactions without your involvement; your absence would disrupt their operations. A deliberately chosen weak answer can become a formidable moat. A weak answer imposed upon you, however, serves as a stark warning. LAYER 02 / 14 · Pick the Layer, Not the Logo. The travel industry is not a monolithic market; rather, it is an intricate, layered system, each stratum characterized by its own distinct economic drivers, established players, and profit margins. The common refrain from many founders, "we’re in travel," often masks a reality where they have merely engineered a more aesthetically pleasing interface atop another entity’s underlying economics. It is crucial to identify precisely which floor of the travel stack you are targeting and, more importantly, to ascertain whether that particular floor genuinely captures margin. Inspiration may be abundant and free, but the substantial financial gains are invariably located several floors below. PLATE 02 · THE TRAVEL STACK. TAP A FLOOR. Consumer inspiration: This is the realm where travel dreams are conceived. While inspiration is freely generated, the monetization occurs three floors down. Search & planning: Here, consumer intent solidifies. Google dominated this floor for two decades, exacting a toll on its users. Now, AI-powered answer engines are vigorously contesting this territory. Booking & payments: This is the critical juncture where financial transactions occur – the epicenter of intense competition. Distribution rails: Encompassing reservation networks, APIs, wholesalers, and channel managers, these represent the essential toll roads of the industry. Operations: This layer includes hotels, airlines, airports, and staffing – the practical execution of the travel promise, where delivery is either realized or falls short. Capital allocation: The domain of owners, lenders, sovereign entities, and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), these stakeholders determine the direction of financial investment. Government & destination systems: This foundational scaffolding includes visas, taxes, and tourism boards, underpinning the entire industry. LAYER 03 / 14 · The Toll. Consider a hotel night priced at $500. Depending on the specific distribution channel through which the booking was made, the hotel itself might retain anywhere from $350 to $475 of that revenue. The difference is collected by intermediaries, a practice that has been standard for decades. The entire historical trajectory of travel technology has been a protracted battle over who has the right to collect this toll – whether it’s the commission charged by OTAs, the fees levied by major airline reservation networks, the interchange fees from credit card transactions, the cut taken by app stores, or the cost of clicks on metasearch engines. Before embarking on any new venture, a meticulous mapping of these distribution rails is essential. Establishing oneself as a new toll collector necessitates a direct confrontation with incumbents possessing decades of entrenched supplier relationships and sophisticated fraud mitigation workflows. A more intriguing proposition lies in assisting suppliers in circumventing these tolls, although it is worth noting that OTAs are increasingly functioning as de facto back-end systems for many. The most advantageous position, however, is to become the rail itself. The pivotal question for the coming decade is which of these established tolls will endure in an era where AI facilitates the booking process. PLATE 03 · ONE $500 HOTEL NIGHT, THREE RAILS. Direct booking: $475 remains with the hotel. OTA booking: $375 to $425 remains with the hotel. Wholesale resellers (bedbanks): $350 or less remains with the hotel. The shaded area represents the "toll." The forward-looking question is: which toll booths will persist when AI assumes the role of booking agent? LAYER 04 / 14 · Read Their Capital Allocation. The strategic decisions made by incumbent players regarding their capital, as evidenced by their investment patterns rather than their public pronouncements, offer invaluable insights into existing market gaps. Major hotel chains like Marriott and Hilton each dedicate approximately 2.3% and 2% of their revenue to technology, respectively, while simultaneously proclaiming themselves as technology platforms on earnings calls. Booking Holdings, in contrast, allocates 3.4% of its disclosed IT expenditure against a staggering 30% dedicated to marketing, reflecting a 9-to-1 ratio, even as it assures investors of substantial investments in AI. The largest entities in the travel sector typically return 60% to 75% of their free cash flow to shareholders through buybacks. Their actions unequivocally signal a belief in the enduring nature of the current business models. If your conviction lies elsewhere, then focusing your efforts on areas where their capital is demonstrably not being deployed becomes a strategic imperative. However, a crucial caveat precedes this approach: an apparent absence of investment does not automatically signify an opportune opening. Capital may be deliberately withheld due to inherently unfavorable economics, an insufficiently large market, or a fundamental lack of willingness from customers to pay. PLATE 04 · SAY VS. SPEND. Booking Holdings, share of revenue: Technology spend, share of revenue: Companies that claim to be technology platforms on earnings calls are, in practice, allocating capital akin to utility providers. The discrepancy between their claims and their actions might represent your strategic opening – a hypothesis that the subsequent plate will rigorously test. LAYER 05 / 14 · Build Where Incumbents Are Structurally Conflicted. The most fertile ground for entrepreneurial endeavors lies in those areas where major players are fundamentally incapable of operating due to the inherent conflicts within their own economic structures. For every perceived gap in their investment strategies, it is essential to investigate the underlying reasons for its existence. Can the incumbent realistically enter this domain at will, or would such a move jeopardize its existing business? Identify the contradiction and establish your operations within its confines. Booking Holdings, for example, cannot effectively assist hotels in disengaging from its platform. To compete with a startup in this specific niche, an incumbent would be compelled to undermine its own core business. This creates a strategic vulnerability that is exceptionally difficult for an established player to replicate. PLATE 05 · THE CONTRADICTION TABLE. TAP A ROW. OTAs SAYS: They claim to facilitate hotels’ direct booking growth. TRAPPED: Their business model is predicated on the continuation of hotel dependence. Airlines SAYS: They express a desire for modern retailing capabilities. TRAPPED: Constrained by legacy reservation network contracts and outdated systems. Hotel brands SAYS: They advocate for loyalty program investment. TRAPPED: Franchise owners prioritize net operating income. DMOs (Destination Marketing Organizations) SAYS: They assert a commitment to community benefit. TRAPPED: Their funding is contingent on visitor growth metrics. Google SAYS: They aim to provide the most accurate travel information. TRAPPED: Generates billions in advertising revenue from the very companies it would disintermediate. To effectively compete with you in these areas, they would need to dismantle their own established structures. PART II · THE WEDGE YOU CAN OWN. This section delves into the strategic entry points and the identification of the ideal customer base. LAYER 06 / 14 · The Consumer Travel Startup Is Dead as a Venture Thesis. While it is still entirely possible to build successful consumer-facing travel businesses, the prevailing venture capital model of raising funds to acquire customers at scale has become untenable. The traditional playbook of raising capital, expending it on customer acquisition, achieving critical mass, and then exiting has proven to be a failing strategy in the consumer travel sector. Google exerts significant control over travel discovery, while Booking and Expedia dominate the booking process. Furthermore, suppliers are increasingly prioritizing direct sales channels, and AI agents are beginning to preemptively address traveler inquiries before they engage with established platforms. Consequently, nearly every consumer travel startup from the past decade has either pivoted to a business-to-business (B2B) model, experienced an "acqui-hire," or ceased operations entirely. The entities that have demonstrated resilience are those operating within the infrastructure layer – companies that the average traveler has likely never encountered. PLATE 06 · WHO OWNS THE CONSUMER FUNNEL. AI agents: Increasingly positioned above all existing players. Google: Dominates the top of the funnel. Booking / Expedia: Control the middle stages of the funnel. Suppliers going direct: Occupy the bottom of the funnel. You: Where do you fit? The historical graveyard of travel startups is replete with itinerary builders. LAYER 07 / 14 · Business Pain Over Traveler Pain. Travelers frequently express dissatisfaction, but this does not automatically translate into a willingness to pay for solutions. Businesses, conversely, are far more likely to invest in resolving their pain points. The more strategically advantageous wedge is almost invariably found on the business side of the equation: hotels struggling with margin erosion due to inefficient distribution, airlines failing to achieve effective retailing despite years of discussion, and destinations fixated on arrival numbers rather than profitability. Crucially, in the travel industry, the user, the payer, the supplier, and the ultimate beneficiary are often four distinct entities. Your potential buyer is never "the travel industry" in its entirety. Instead, it is invariably a specific executive who controls a budget – perhaps a Chief Marketing Officer procuring marketing technology, an airline Chief Financial Officer funding AI initiatives, or a Head of Revenue Management seeking new software solutions. An opportunity only holds true value if there is a dedicated budget allocated for its acquisition. The key is to identify the executive who wields that budget and direct your sales efforts towards them. PLATE 07 · ONE BOOKING, FOUR PEOPLE. The individual who utilizes the service, the entity that finances it, and the specific person you engage with for sales are seldom the same. LAYER 08 / 14 · Know Which Friction You’re Solving. The travel industry often employs the term "friction" as a universally negative descriptor. The prevailing narrative suggests that removing friction leads to increased conversion rates – a premise underpinning virtually every "Connected Trip" pitch and every AI agent demonstration encountered. The Friction Framework, a concept I developed, posits two critical questions: who is affected by the friction, and does it either destroy value or serve to protect it? This analysis yields four distinct categories. Barrier friction impedes customer acquisition, making its removal imperative. Legacy friction consumes excessive time and labor, necessitating automation. Discovery friction, however, is an integral component of the planning and anticipation process, and as such, should be preserved. Finally, competitive friction represents the inherent complexity that your company has mastered to a greater degree than its rivals, and this should be actively maintained as a strategic moat. PLATE 08 · THE FRICTION FRAMEWORK. TAP EACH. Barrier: REMOVE IT Visas, missing flight routes, and broken payment systems are prime examples. When China eliminated visa requirements for most European nations, inbound travel surged organically, requiring no promotional campaigns. The removal of the barrier directly facilitated demand. Legacy: AUTOMATE IT This encompasses fragmented supply chains, manual operational processes, and disconnected inventory systems. This is precisely where the majority of successful B2B travel startups find their niche. Discovery: PRESERVE IT This includes the inherent enjoyment derived from research, comparison, and the anticipation of travel. Aggressively compressing the planning phase risks addressing a problem that a significant portion of travelers do not wish to have solved. Competitive: KEEP IT ON PURPOSE This refers to operational complexity that serves as a strategic moat. My recent analysis of Turkey’s travel tech sector highlighted its resilience, forged through navigating currency volatility and geopolitical disruptions, making it potentially more adaptable to future travel trends than platforms developed for stable Western markets. Your company’s competitive advantage lies in the friction you are uniquely positioned to manage. LAYER 09 / 14 · Demand Moves in Corridors, Not Markets. Travel demand does not distribute uniformly across the globe in a manner analogous to water finding its level. Instead, it flows within defined "corridors" – persistent patterns shaped by factors such as flight availability, visa regulations, diaspora communities, trade relationships, payment infrastructures, and significant events. When Ryanair initiated flights to Tirana in late 2023, airfares plummeted, and passenger traffic experienced a substantial surge. This was not a result of Albania suddenly becoming more intrinsically appealing, but rather because it became significantly more accessible and affordable, particularly for travelers from Italy, members of the Albanian diaspora, and budget-conscious individuals from Northern Europe. Founders are advised to meticulously study these demand flows, rather than solely focusing on individual countries. Corridors illuminate the origins of demand, whereas markets define the operational theater for a company. The strategic approach should be to build around these identified corridors, and then gradually expand market by market. PLATE 09 · DEMAND CORRIDORS. Italy (represented by a circle) N. Europe (represented by a circle) Diaspora (represented by a circle) Tirana (represented by a larger circle) The curved lines illustrate the flow of demand, originating from Italy, Northern Europe, and the Diaspora, converging on Tirana. The annotation at the bottom reads: FIG. – flights + visas + diaspora + trade + payments + events = corridor. Albania represented a corridor undergoing rapid development, with latent demand poised to capitalize on the newly available flight routes. LAYER 10 / 14 · Win a Specific World First. While the global travel landscape may appear unified, companies must navigate the complexities of operating on a country-by-country basis, adhering to diverse regulations, payment systems, and supplier agreements. The strategic imperative is to commence by establishing a firm foothold in a clearly defined customer segment and operating environment. This could manifest as specializing in boutique hotels in Morocco, catering to Muslim family travel, or developing forecasting models for city hotels in anticipation of major events. The world can be perceived as either a singular market or a series of distinct travel corridors; what truly matters is the presence of a clearly identifiable customer base and a unique set of operational conditions. The objective is to become indispensable within this specific domain first. Subsequently, a strategic decision can be made regarding whether the next market offers sufficient similarities for expansion or necessitates a fundamentally new approach. PLATE 10 · CONCENTRIC AMBITION. The visualization depicts concentric rectangles. The outermost rectangle is labeled "global travel platform." The middle rectangle is labeled "the adjacent world." The innermost, most prominent rectangle is labeled "a specific world." This illustrates a strategy of focused growth, starting with a niche market before expanding outward. The core message is to become indispensable within the smallest defined area first. LAYER 11 / 14 · Look Beyond the Usual Hubs. The concentration of travel technology innovation is not solely confined to traditional hubs like San Francisco, London, Amsterdam, and Singapore. Some of the most robust and impactful companies are emerging from other locations, often receiving less attention and attracting comparatively less capital. Turkey, for instance, is home to Hitit, recognized as one of the world’s leading airline reservation technology providers. Montreal has fostered the growth of Hopper, Plusgrade, and a cohort of other critical travel infrastructure businesses. Indian travel tech firms are increasingly engaging in the acquisition of established Western companies. Founders are encouraged to broaden their geographical horizons beyond the conventional hubs. The most promising opportunities may well reside in regions where expertise is advancing at a pace that outstrips investor attention. PLATE 11 · THE MAP THEY READ VS. THE MAP THAT MATTERS. PRICED IN: San Francisco, London, Amsterdam, Singapore. MISPRICED: Istanbul (Hitit: one of the world’s largest airline reservation tech companies), Montreal (80 years of compounding expertise, stemming from ICAO), Gurugram (TBO, RateGain: actively acquiring into the Western stack), Antalya (forged in volatility). This plate highlights the disparity between where investors typically focus their attention and where significant, often undervalued, technological advancements are occurring. PART III · BUILD THE RIGHT COMPANY. This section focuses on securing appropriate funding, constructing a truly impactful business, and adapting to evolving customer behaviors. LAYER 12 / 14 · Match the Capital to the Business. Venture capital proves most effective when companies possess the potential for rapid scalability, allowing a few dominant winners to emerge. In the travel industry, core areas like booking, payments, and distribution are already characterized by the presence of large, established players. However, the segments where startups typically find entry points – hotels, tours, and operations – remain inherently fragmented across countries, regulations, languages, and diverse supplier types. These businesses present greater challenges for scaling and typically have fewer potential acquirers when founders seek an exit. Historically, the most enduring travel technology companies have been financed through diverse avenues. Turkey’s airline Pegasus, for example, holds a significant stake in Hitit. In Canada, CDPQ provided the necessary capital for Plusgrade’s expansion, while Softvoyage achieved sustained growth for 37 years without any external funding. In India, TBO and RateGain have strategically acquired established Western companies, a phenomenon Skift has termed "Reverse Gravity." What unites these successful entities is a profound sense of patience. They invested in building infrastructure that required years of meticulous integration and trust-building before yielding substantial returns. This protracted timeline rarely aligns with the rapid growth expectations of venture capital. The overarching lesson is straightforward: align the funding source with the fundamental nature of the business. The wrong investors can inadvertently compel a promising company to accelerate its growth prematurely, divest its assets too early, or make strategic decisions that ultimately weaken its long-term viability. PLATE 12 · FIVE WAYS TO FUND A TRAVEL COMPANY. Strategic / airline parent: Pegasus owns half of Hitit. Pension capital: CDPQ backed Plusgrade to scale. Bootstrapped: Softvoyage: 37 years, zero outside money. Acquisition-led: TBO, RateGain: Reverse Gravity – hard markets buying into easy ones. Venture capital: The right fit only when a few winners can dominate – rare in the areas where startups typically enter. LAYER 13 / 14 · Be a Builder, Not a Renamer. Skift’s "Say-Do Gap" framework meticulously compares what travel companies articulate about artificial intelligence with their actual operational implementation. Hiring patterns serve as one of the most transparent indicators of this alignment. After a comprehensive review of over 170 AI-related job listings across more than 30 travel companies, three distinct categories of engagement emerged: Builders, who are instrumental in creating entirely new capabilities; Reorganizers, who leverage AI to enhance existing workflows; and Renamers, who append "AI" to job titles or product names without fundamentally altering the underlying operations. A significant number of travel startups regrettably fall into this last category. The companies demonstrating greater strength are those that synergize AI capabilities with established supply access, deep industry knowledge, and practical operating experience. AI can undoubtedly amplify these existing advantages, but it cannot serve as a substitute for them. The initial litmus test lies in determining whether the company has genuinely constructed something tangible. The subsequent crucial assessment involves understanding how effectively the organization comprehends the evolving landscape of customer ownership in the age of AI. PLATE 13 · THE SAY-DO GAP, PLUS A TEST. Builders: Create what did not exist. Reorganizers: Restructure what did. Renamers: Relabel what always was. TAP: STRIP THE AI LANGUAGE FROM YOUR PITCH DECK Does the company still hold logical coherence? If the answer is affirmative, then AI is likely serving as a functional tool, and you may indeed be examining a legitimate business. Conversely, if the narrative falters without the AI veneer, you are likely observing a technology demonstration masquerading as a company – a miniature manifestation of the say-do gap. LAYER 14 / 14 · AI Changes Who Owns the Customer. If your business model is contingent upon travelers actively seeking out your website and completing their bookings there, you are, in essence, architecting for a bygone era. Skift posited in 2015 that bookings would eventually occur across any digital surface, a prediction that AI agents are now rapidly actualizing. SiteMinder has opened access for 53,000 hotels to platforms like ChatGPT and Claude. Long Lake’s acquisition of Amex GBT for $6.3 billion was underpinned by a strategy centered on AI-driven servicing. Capital One’s acquisition of Hopper’s technology was motivated by the desire to integrate travel booking capabilities into its financial platform. The critical question is no longer solely about who facilitates the booking transaction. It is about identifying who possesses ownership of the underlying AI memory associated with that booking. Financial institutions already possess comprehensive data on travelers’ spending habits, expenditure locations, and frequency. However, no single entity has yet consolidated a complete, portable AI memory encompassing a traveler’s preferences, dislikes, specific requests, and overall experiential feedback across an entire trip. When the agent books for someone and learns what they loved and hated – who owns that memory? This AI-driven memory has the potential to emerge as a novel locus of power within the travel industry. The most lucrative opportunity likely lies not in establishing another consumer-facing brand, but rather in developing the infrastructure that securely stores this memory and makes it readily accessible to agents, suppliers, and financial institutions. For an aspiring founder, this represents the most significant unclaimed territory in the contemporary travel landscape. PLATE 14 · THE INTERFACE SHIFT. THEN: Traveler -> (line) -> your website. NOW: Traveler -> (line) -> agent -> (dashed line) -> whoever the agent recalls. The illustration visually represents the shift from direct website interaction to an agent-mediated experience. The annotation highlights the crucial insight: Booking across any digital interface was predicted in 2015. The battleground for the future now resides in the AI memory underpinning these bookings. Fourteen years ago, I embarked on the conceptualization of Skift with no prior experience or established connections within the travel industry. My fundamental belief was that the business aspects of travel were inadequately served by the existing media landscape. This initial premise proved accurate, but it was insufficient on its own. Skift successfully identified an underserved niche – business intelligence – and catered to a specific clientele, subsequently expanding its reach. Each strategic maneuver necessitated the astute selection of the most pertinent problem, a thorough understanding of corporate spending patterns, and a commitment to delivering tangible value within a particular sector of the industry before venturing into adjacent areas. Travel represents the world’s largest experiential economy, yet its influence significantly lags behind its sheer magnitude. This inherent weakness paradoxically creates strategic openings for innovative ventures. Avoid the temptation to merely operate alongside the existing power struggles. Instead, strategically position your startup in arenas where established incumbents cannot follow without jeopardizing their own core businesses. 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