Aurora Borealis Forecast: Northern Lights Expected to Illuminate North American Skies This Weekend

Skywatchers across North America are preparing for a rare summer celestial display as the latest aurora borealis forecast predicts vibrant light shows across much of Canada and several northern U.S. states from Friday, July 31, through Sunday, August 2, 2026. This anticipated event, driven by a combination of solar phenomena, offers a unique opportunity for residents in mid-to-high latitudes to witness one of nature’s most spectacular visual wonders during a season typically dominated by short nights and twilight.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), the upcoming geomagnetic activity is the result of a "double-header" of solar events. Space scientists have identified a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) alongside a high-speed solar wind stream emanating from a coronal hole. Together, these forces are expected to jostle Earth’s magnetic field, potentially pushing the aurora further south than is common for this time of year.

The Science Behind the Glow

The aurora borealis, or northern lights, is a phenomenon that begins nearly 93 million miles away on the surface of the sun. The sun constantly emits a stream of charged particles known as the solar wind. Occasionally, the sun releases massive bursts of solar plasma and magnetic fields, known as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). When these particles reach Earth, they are directed by our planet’s magnetic field toward the magnetic poles.

As these charged solar particles enter the upper atmosphere, they collide with gas molecules—primarily oxygen and nitrogen. These collisions "excite" the atoms, causing them to release energy in the form of light. The colors observed depend on the type of gas involved and the altitude of the collision. Green, the most common auroral color, is produced by oxygen molecules located about 60 to 150 miles above the Earth. Rare red auroras occur when solar particles collide with oxygen at much higher altitudes, typically above 150 miles. Nitrogen, meanwhile, produces blue or purplish-red hues, often seen at the lower fringes of the display.

Detailed Forecast and Geographic Reach

The NOAA SWPC has issued a G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm watch for the weekend. On the G-scale, which ranges from G1 (Minor) to G5 (Extreme), a G2 storm is significant enough to move the aurora’s "view line" deep into the northern tier of the United States. Current models suggest a maximum Kp index of 5.67 on August 2. The Kp index is a scale from 0 to 9 used to characterize the magnitude of geomagnetic storms; a 5.67 indicates a storm strong enough to make the aurora visible to the naked eye in areas that rarely see it.

In Canada, the display is expected to be visible across nearly the entire country, from the Yukon and Northwest Territories down to the southern borders of Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes. In the United States, the aurora view line—the southernmost point where the lights might be visible on the horizon—is expected to dip into several states. Based on the latest NOAA aurora forecast maps, the following states appear fully or partially above the viewing threshold:

• Washington
• Idaho
• Montana
• North Dakota
• South Dakota
• Minnesota
• Wisconsin
• Michigan
• New York
• Vermont
• New Hampshire
• Maine

While those in the southernmost parts of these states may only see a faint green glow on the northern horizon, those in the northernmost regions could experience overhead displays if the storm intensity peaks as predicted.

Expert Perspectives on Solar Dynamics

Rob Steenburgh, a prominent space scientist at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, emphasized that this weekend’s activity is driven by two distinct solar features. "The G2 forecast is in response to an eruption from the sun yesterday that’s heading to Earth, and another anticipated solar feature called a ‘coronal hole,’ which brings fast solar wind," Steenburgh explained. "The eruption (CME) and coronal hole are both indicators of future activity."

While CMEs are violent, discrete events, coronal holes are areas where the sun’s magnetic field opens up, allowing solar wind to escape at much higher speeds than usual. When a high-speed stream from a coronal hole catches up to a CME, it can "buffer" or enhance the geomagnetic impact, leading to more sustained auroral displays.

Steenburgh also noted the context of the current solar cycle. The sun operates on an approximately 11-year cycle of activity. While we passed the official "solar maximum" in 2024—the period of peak activity—the years following the maximum often feature significant geomagnetic events. "Geomagnetic storms will occur, but with less frequency as we move further from the maximum," Steenburgh said. However, G2 forecasts remain relatively common, occurring roughly 600 times during an average 11-year cycle.

Challenges for Summer Viewing

Watching the northern lights in late July and early August presents unique challenges compared to winter viewing. In the northern latitudes, the "astronomical twilight" lasts much longer during the summer, meaning the sky does not get truly dark until late in the evening. Furthermore, the current forecast coincides with a moon that is near its full phase.

"Ideally, low moon illumination would help to maximize the viewing experience, but the moon is almost full at the moment," Steenburgh warned. A bright moon can wash out the subtle colors of the aurora, making it harder to see with the naked eye. To combat this, experts suggest finding a location where the moon can be blocked by a natural feature, like a mountain or a dense stand of trees, while still maintaining a clear view of the northern horizon.

Weather also plays a critical role. Cloud cover is the primary enemy of the aurora chaser. Meteorologists suggest that while the northern plains of the U.S. may see clear skies, parts of the Northeast and the Pacific Northwest could face localized cloudiness that might obscure the view.

Strategies for Success: How to See the Lights

For those hoping to catch a glimpse, preparation is key. Stephanie Vermillion, an astrotourism expert, recommends a proactive approach. "Catching the lights takes a bit of luck, but you can increase your odds by monitoring real-time data," she suggests.

1. Monitor the Kp Index: Use apps like "My Aurora Forecast" or "Space Weather Live" to track the Kp index in real-time. If the index hits 5 or higher, activity is likely.
2. Find Dark Skies: Move away from city lights. Light pollution significantly reduces the contrast of the aurora. Dark Sky Parks or rural areas are ideal.
3. Look North: In the continental U.S., the aurora often appears as a glow on the northern horizon rather than directly overhead. Ensure you have an unobstructed view of the north.
4. Patience is Mandatory: Auroral activity often comes in "sub-storms" or pulses. You might see nothing for an hour, followed by 15 minutes of intense dancing lights. Experts recommend dedicated viewing windows of three to four hours.

Capturing the Aurora on Mobile Devices

Modern technology has made it easier than ever for amateur skywatchers to document the northern lights. Interestingly, smartphone sensors are often more sensitive to the specific wavelengths of auroral light than the human eye. This means your phone might "see" a green or red glow even if the sky looks grey or dark to you.

To capture the best photos, photographers recommend using a tripod to keep the phone steady during long exposures. Most modern iPhones and Android devices feature a "Night Mode" that automatically increases exposure time. For the best results:

• Engage Night Mode and set it to the maximum available time (usually 3 to 10 seconds).
• Use the 1x lens, as it usually has the widest aperture and best low-light performance.
• Turn off the flash.
• Manually lower the exposure slider if the moon is making the sky look too bright.

Looking Ahead: The Autumn Outlook

While this weekend provides an exciting mid-summer treat, the outlook for the remainder of 2026 remains positive for aurora hunters. As the Earth approaches the autumnal equinox in September, a phenomenon known as the "Russell-McPherron effect" takes place. During the weeks surrounding the equinoxes, the orientation of Earth’s magnetic field relative to the solar wind often leads to more frequent and intense geomagnetic storms.

Steenburgh noted that as the days grow shorter in the coming months, the window of darkness will expand, providing more opportunities to view the lights in more comfortable conditions. For now, however, the focus remains on the next 72 hours. Whether it is a faint green arc or a dancing curtain of violet, the potential for a weekend light show has millions of North Americans looking toward the stars.

As with all space weather, the forecast is subject to change. "Geomagnetic storm forecasts are very coarse," Steenburgh reminded. "The timing and intensity can vary greatly; the storm can arrive earlier or later and be of greater or lesser strength." For the most current information, skywatchers are encouraged to check the NOAA 30-minute aurora forecast for real-time updates as the solar wind interacts with our atmosphere tonight.