Israel says it has plans for at least three weeks of war as airstrikes pound Iran

TEL AVIV – Israel announced on Monday, March 16, that it has meticulously prepared for a sustained conflict, detailing operational plans for at least three more weeks of war against Iran, with strategies extending significantly beyond that immediate timeframe. The announcement came as Israeli airstrikes continued to devastate sites across Iran overnight, while Iranian retaliatory drone attacks caused significant disruptions, temporarily shutting down Dubai International Airport and striking a critical oil facility in the United Arab Emirates.

This escalating conflict, now entering its third week, has plunged the Middle East into unprecedented turmoil, with profound global ramifications. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which an estimated 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows, remains largely obstructed. This disruption has sent energy prices soaring to historic highs, triggering widespread fears of a severe spike in global inflation and potentially a worldwide economic recession.

Israel’s Strategic Imperative: Weakening the Iranian Regime

Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesperson, underscored the depth of Israel’s commitment, stating, "We have detailed operational plans for the war with Iran for the next three weeks, and other plans extending further ahead." He elaborated on the core objective: "We want to make sure that they are as weak as possible, this regime, and that we degrade all their capabilities, all parts and all wings of their security establishment." This statement reflects a comprehensive strategy aimed at dismantling Iran’s military and strategic infrastructure rather than merely containing it.

Military analysts suggest that Israel’s "degradation" strategy targets several key areas:

1. Ballistic Missile Infrastructure: Iran’s extensive arsenal of short, medium, and long-range ballistic missiles, including their production facilities, launch sites, and command and control centers, poses a direct threat to Israel and its regional allies. Strikes on these sites aim to reduce Iran’s capacity for conventional retaliation.
2. Nuclear Facilities: While not explicitly confirmed as targets in every strike, Israel has long viewed Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat. Any ongoing conflict would likely involve attempts to neutralize or severely cripple enrichment facilities, research centers, and related infrastructure, even if they are deeply fortified.
3. Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Security Apparatus: The IRGC is the ideological backbone of the Iranian regime and a formidable military force. Targeting its bases, intelligence headquarters, training camps, and leadership aims to undermine the regime’s operational capacity and internal control.
4. Drone and Missile Production: Given Iran’s increasing reliance on advanced drone technology and precision-guided missiles, disrupting their manufacturing and assembly lines is crucial for Israel’s defensive posture.
5. Proxy Networks: Although not directly within Iran, a core part of Israel’s strategy is to weaken Iran’s ability to support and arm its regional proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and various militias in Iraq and Syria. The ongoing strikes in Lebanon and Gaza are intrinsically linked to this broader objective.

"Israel is executing a layered campaign," explained Dr. Elara Vance, a senior fellow at the Institute for Middle East Studies. "They are not just hitting isolated targets; they are systematically trying to dismantle Iran’s ability to project power and threaten its neighbors. The ‘three-week plan’ likely signifies an intense initial phase of air superiority and strategic strikes, aimed at achieving specific objectives before potential shifts in strategy or international pressure." Shoshani affirmed that Israel still "has thousands of targets to hit," indicating the vast scope of the ongoing military campaign.

Iran’s Multi-Front Retaliation and Regional Chaos

Iran’s response has been swift, multifaceted, and strategically disruptive, aiming to inflict economic pain and demonstrate its capacity for regional retaliation. The most significant action has been the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. International shipping data confirms that major commercial vessels, particularly oil tankers, have been advised to avoid the strait due to the extreme risk of attack. This has choked off a crucial artery of global trade.

"The Strait of Hormuz is not just an energy corridor; it’s a lifeline for global commerce," stated Dr. Aris Thorne, an economist specializing in energy markets. "Its closure has ripple effects across every industry, from manufacturing to logistics. The initial surge in oil prices to well over US$100 a barrel was predictable, but the long-term impact on global inflation and potential supply chain collapse is a much graver concern." The disruption has also significantly increased insurance premiums for any vessel attempting to navigate the Gulf, further deterring shipping.

Overnight, Iranian drone attacks underscored Tehran’s willingness to target vital economic infrastructure beyond its immediate borders. Dubai International Airport, one of the world’s busiest aviation hubs, was temporarily shut down after a drone strike on a nearby fuel storage facility sent thick plumes of black smoke into the sky. Simultaneously, another drone attack hit a key oil facility in the United Arab Emirates, demonstrating Iran’s capability to directly impact the economies of its Gulf Arab adversaries and disrupt global energy supplies.

Further escalating the regional tensions, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for missile attacks on areas in Tel Aviv, as well as on US military installations in the region, including the US al-Dhafra air base in Abu Dhabi, the US naval base in Bahrain, and Bahrain’s Sheikh Issa air base. While initial reports did not confirm the extent of damage or casualties from these specific claims, the psychological impact was significant. Air raid sirens blared across Israeli cities, signaling the direct threat posed by Iranian long-range capabilities.

The ripple effects were felt across the Gulf. Oil loading operations at the UAE port of Fujairah, a critical exit point for the UAE’s Murban crude and a strategic alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, were suspended following an Iranian drone strike. This port alone handles a volume equivalent to roughly 1 per cent of global demand. In neighboring Saudi Arabia, state media reported that the kingdom’s air defenses intercepted 34 drones in its eastern region within a single hour, highlighting the sheer volume and persistence of Iranian aerial assaults. Later, Reuters reporters in the Qatari capital, Doha, also reported hearing booms, indicating the widespread nature of the aerial conflict across the Gulf.

Humanitarian Toll and Internal Dissent in Iran

The human cost of the conflict is rapidly mounting, particularly within Iran. Mehr news agency reported that five people had been killed and seven wounded in overnight strikes on Markazi province in central Iran. In Khomein city, within the same province, a boys’ school was reportedly targeted, causing damage to the surrounding area, though no casualties were reported there. Fars News Agency also reported civilian fatalities in a strike near Tehran’s Martyrs’ Square, without providing specific figures.

Rescue workers in Tehran were seen frantically pulling people from the wreckage of a residential building in what an Iranian Red Crescent aid worker described as an entirely residential alleyway. "Rescue teams are currently pulling people out from under the rubble," he stated, highlighting the civilian impact of the urban strikes.

The conflict has also exacerbated existing internal tensions within Iran. A Tehran resident, identified only as Shahnaz, 62, conveyed via WhatsApp the harrowing experience of an internet blackout overnight, leaving Iranians feeling isolated. "People are being killed," she lamented, adding, "Just days before Nowruz (Iranian New Year, on March 20), but people are not in the mood to celebrate. When will this end?" Her personal tragedy underscored the deep-seated grievances against the regime: "No, I don’t [support the Islamic Republic]. How can I? They killed my granddaughter in [January’s] protests. We want this regime to go. We want this misery to end."

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, according to Iran’s semi-official Student News Network, denied any requests for a ceasefire or direct communication with the US. In a post on X, Araqchi also pointedly accused some "neighboring states" that host US forces and permit attacks on Iran of "actively encouraging the killing of Iranians." He demanded that "Stances should be promptly clarified" and claimed that 200 children were among the hundreds of Iranian civilians killed in US or Israeli bombings. These statements highlight Iran’s attempt to galvanize regional support and deflect blame while pointing to the severe civilian casualties.

International Hesitation and Economic Volatility

US President Donald Trump had, on Sunday, called for a coalition of nations to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and warned that the US-led NATO defense alliance faced a "very bad" future if its members failed to contribute. He specifically demanded that countries heavily reliant on oil from the Gulf, including China, France, Japan, South Korea, and Britain, participate in protecting the strait.

However, the international community has largely responded with caution. While allies voiced support for diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation and reopen the vital shipping route, many were hesitant to commit to any direct military action. Germany, Italy, Greece, Japan, and Australia, among others, publicly stated they would not send warships, reflecting a widespread reluctance to be drawn into a potentially wider Middle East conflict. European nations, already grappling with economic challenges and the looming threat of a refugee crisis, prioritized de-escalation over military involvement. China and India, major energy importers from the Gulf, have maintained a neutral stance, prioritizing the safety of their trade routes and citizens while calling for restraint from all parties.

Amidst the turbulence, global financial markets experienced significant volatility. Oil prices, which had initially surged above US$100 a barrel, fell sharply, and global stock markets rallied after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the US was "fine" to let some Iranian fuel vessels sail through the strait. Bessent’s comments, viewed as a strategic attempt to calm markets and signal a nuanced approach to the blockade, also indicated that Indian and Chinese tankers had successfully passed through the strait. Ship-tracking data further supported this, showing a Pakistan-bound oil tanker had navigated the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, suggesting that some countries might be able to negotiate safe passage for their vessels, perhaps through specific diplomatic channels or under tacit agreements. This partial easing of the blockade, or at least the perception of it, temporarily alleviated market fears of a complete and unyielding closure.

Broader Regional Repercussions

Beyond Iran, the conflict has intensified in other flashpoints. Israel continued its strikes in Lebanon and Gaza, targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah and Palestinian Hamas militants. The Israeli military confirmed that its troops had initiated limited ground operations against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, marking a significant escalation in that long-simmering front. This multi-front engagement stretches Israel’s military resources and raises the specter of a broader regional conflagration.

The involvement of Hezbollah, with its significant rocket arsenal and battle-hardened fighters, poses a severe threat to northern Israel. Similarly, the ongoing operations in Gaza against Hamas, another Iranian proxy, underscore the interconnected nature of these conflicts. Regional analysts warn that the current scenario could easily draw in other non-state actors, such as Houthi rebels in Yemen or various Iraqi militias, further destabilizing an already volatile region.

As the conflict enters its third week, the path forward remains fraught with uncertainty. Israel’s determination to degrade Iran’s capabilities, coupled with Iran’s willingness to inflict economic and military pain on its adversaries, suggests a prolonged and devastating confrontation. The international community faces the immense challenge of de-escalating a conflict that threatens global economic stability and human lives, without becoming entangled in its complex and dangerous dynamics. The fate of millions, and indeed the global economy, hinges on the trajectory of this rapidly unfolding crisis.