Skift Global Forum Preview: Certares’ Greg O’Hara on Why He’s Betting €300 Million on Trains

The investment, a €300 million check supplemented by a surge of co-investment interest from European family offices and institutional funds, is underpinned by a simple but profound observation: in the race to dismantle long-standing monopolies in the European rail market, physical hardware is the ultimate leverage. As the European Union continues to push for rail liberalization through its Fourth Railway Package, the barriers to entry remain formidable. It is not enough to have a brand or a vision; one must have the rolling stock—the actual high-speed train sets—capable of meeting the rigorous technical and safety standards required to traverse international borders, particularly the highly regulated Channel Tunnel.

O’Hara’s strategy is built on the reality of the global supply chain. In an era where order books for manufacturers like Alstom and Hitachi are stretched into the next decade, securing a place in the production line is a competitive moat. Trenitalia France’s recent order of 19 high-speed trains from Hitachi, ten of which are specifically designated for a proposed Paris-London service, places the company years ahead of potential rivals who are still in the negotiation phase for equipment. For O’Hara, the logic is inescapable: regulators and infrastructure managers are far more likely to grant track access and tunnel slots to an operator that can prove it has the trains ready to roll, rather than a "paper airline" equivalent in the rail world.

The backdrop for this investment is a rapidly changing regulatory and cultural environment in Europe. The continent is currently witnessing a renaissance of rail, driven by both consumer preference and aggressive climate policy. In France, the government has already implemented a ban on domestic short-haul flights where a rail alternative of under two and a half hours exists. This legislative tailwind, combined with a growing "flight shame" movement and a preference for the convenience of city-center-to-city-center travel, has made high-speed rail a primary target for ESG-focused (Environmental, Social, and Governance) capital. O’Hara notes that for sovereign wealth funds with strict ESG mandates, finding profitable, large-scale infrastructure projects in Europe can be difficult. High-speed rail, which is almost entirely electrified and significantly more carbon-efficient than aviation, provides a rare intersection of sustainability and scalability.

The specific battleground for O’Hara’s theory is the lucrative but notoriously difficult London-Paris route, currently dominated by Eurostar. For years, Eurostar has enjoyed a near-monopoly on the cross-channel route, protected by the immense technical complexity of the Channel Tunnel and the high capital costs of specialized rolling stock. However, the entry of Trenitalia France, backed by Certares, sets up a high-stakes "Great Rail Race" against Virgin Trains. While Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin brand carries immense consumer weight and has recently secured a maintenance depot in London, O’Hara remains skeptical of any competitor that lacks a firm, multi-billion-euro commitment to rolling stock.

The logistics of this race are a study in infrastructure maneuvering. While Virgin won the rights to the Temple Mills depot in London, Trenitalia France countered by securing a 35-year lease on a depot in Maisons-Alfort, Paris. In the rail world, a depot is more than just a garage; it is a prerequisite for safety certifications and operational reliability. By securing the Paris facility and placing a firm order for Hitachi train sets, Trenitalia France has effectively checked two of the most critical boxes on the regulatory roadmap. O’Hara’s "trains first" philosophy suggests that the UK’s Office of Rail and Road and the French regulator, ART, will prioritize the operator that can guarantee service commencement by 2029 or 2030, rather than waiting for speculative orders to materialize.

Beyond the hardware, Certares brings a unique weapon to the table: a massive, ready-made distribution network. The firm’s portfolio includes Marietton Développement and Voyageurs du Monde in France, as well as the global reach of Amex GBT. This vertical integration allows Certares to steer high volumes of corporate and leisure travelers toward its rail assets from day one. In the airline industry, this is a proven model, but in the fragmented world of European rail, it represents a new level of sophisticated commercial strategy. By paying its own distribution agencies adequate commissions and integrating rail bookings into corporate travel platforms, Certares can ensure that its trains run at high load factors, a critical metric for the capital-intensive rail business.

The partnership with Ferrovie dello Stato (FS), the Italian state railway, is also a key component of the play. Trenitalia has already proven its ability to compete successfully outside its home market. In Spain, its Iryo service has aggressively taken market share from the incumbent Renfe, driving down prices and increasing service frequency. In Italy, the competition between Trenitalia’s Frecciarossa and the private operator Italo (now owned by MSC) has become a global case study for how rail liberalization can benefit consumers and grow the overall market. O’Hara is betting that Trenitalia can replicate this success in France and on the cross-channel route, using its status as one of Hitachi’s largest customers to maintain a technological edge.

Looking toward the future, O’Hara sees the European high-speed rail model as a blueprint that can be exported to other high-density corridors. While the United States remains a challenging market due to fragmented infrastructure and a lack of political consensus, other regions like the Middle East are showing immense promise. The proposed high-speed link between Doha, Qatar, and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, represents the kind of "city pair" demand that Certares and Trenitalia are built to exploit. These projects require massive capital, world-class operating expertise, and a deep understanding of travel distribution—a trifecta that O’Hara believes his firm now possesses.

The €300 million investment is not just a bet on a single route or a single company; it is a bet on the end of the "low-cost carrier" era for short-haul European travel and the rise of a more integrated, efficient, and sustainable transport network. By focusing on the "unsexy" aspects of the business—maintenance depots, rolling stock orders, and regulatory approvals—O’Hara is positioning Certares to be the architect of a new age of mobility.

As the 2029 target for the Paris-London service approaches, the industry will be watching to see if O’Hara’s theory holds true. If Trenitalia France successfully breaks Eurostar’s grip on the tunnel, it will prove that in the modern era of travel, the old adage remains true: "He who has the most toys wins." Only in this case, the toys are €2 billion worth of high-speed train sets, and the prize is a dominant position in the future of European transportation. The "landslide of interest" from investors suggests that O’Hara is not alone in this belief. The transition from an asset-light travel agency focus to an asset-heavy rail powerhouse is a bold move, but in a world where the tunnel is the bottleneck, owning the trains is the only way to ensure you are the first one through.