The Scarcity Shift: Why Steve Case is Betting on Irreplaceable Places in the Age of AI.

As the travel industry hurtles toward a future defined by algorithmic precision and generative automation, Steve Case, the co-founder of AOL and current Chairman and CEO of Revolution, is looking in the opposite direction. His investment thesis, which he intends to detail at the upcoming Skift Global Forum on September 22–24, 2026, revolves around a singular, provocative question: "Will AI make this more abundant, or will it remain scarce?" This binary test is the foundation of what Case calls the "Scarcity Shift," a strategic pivot that prioritizes high-barrier physical assets and human-centric curation over the digital commodities that artificial intelligence is rapidly devaluing.

Steve Case is no stranger to seismic technological shifts. As the man who helped bring the internet to the masses in the 1990s, he witnessed firsthand how connectivity could transform industries by removing traditional barriers. However, in the current era of the "Third Wave"—a term Case coined to describe the integration of the internet into real-world sectors like healthcare, energy, and food—the value proposition has changed. In his view, while AI is set to revolutionize the mechanics of travel, its very efficiency creates a vacuum of meaning that only the physical and the personal can fill.

The Scarcity Shift begins with the recognition that AI is an engine of abundance. It can generate infinite travel itineraries, produce endless marketing content, and automate the logistical nightmares of flight cancellations or hotel rebookings. But as these digital functions become cheaper and more accessible, their market value inevitably declines. Case argues that when information becomes a commodity, the things AI cannot replicate—geography, community, and human judgment—become the new "gold standard" of the travel economy.

This philosophy has manifested in Revolution’s significant investments in high-end, irreplaceable real estate and membership-driven hospitality. A primary example is Punta Cacique, an oceanfront peninsula on Costa Rica’s Guanacaste coast. For Case, the investment wasn’t a bet on whether AI would improve the guest experience; he takes it as a given that AI will streamline check-ins and personalize room temperatures. Instead, it was a bet on the peninsula itself. AI can simulate a sunset or generate a 3D model of a beach, but it cannot manufacture the unique topography of a Costa Rican coastline or the decades of environmental stewardship required to preserve it. The same logic applies to Case’s extensive land holdings in Hawaii. These are "finite" assets in an increasingly "infinite" digital world.

Beyond physical geography, Case identifies "community trust" as another form of scarcity. In an era where deepfakes and AI-generated reviews are polluting the digital information stream, the value of a trusted brand or a verified network has skyrocketed. This is the driving force behind The Exclusive Collective, a portfolio that includes Exclusive Resorts, Inspirato, and onefinestay. By focusing on membership models rather than transactional bookings, Case is building what he calls "relationships that compound."

The traditional travel model is often episodic: a customer searches for a hotel on an OTA (Online Travel Agency), stays for three nights, and the relationship ends the moment they check out. The next trip starts from a baseline of zero. In contrast, the membership model creates a continuous feedback loop. When a family stays with Exclusive Resorts for the tenth time, the company isn’t just providing a roof; they are leveraging a decade of data and personal familiarity. They know which milestones are being celebrated, the specific preferences of the children, and the nuances of the family’s travel style. This level of institutional memory is a form of "human data" that no third-party algorithm can easily replicate because it is forged through real-world experience rather than digital scraping.

This return to the human element is backed by surprising data trends among the youngest travelers. Conventional wisdom suggested that Gen Z and Millennials, the most digitally native generations, would be the first to fully abandon human travel advisors in favor of AI-driven planning. However, recent data suggests the opposite. A Chase Travel survey of more than 4,000 travelers revealed that 60 percent of Gen Z and Millennials actually prefer using a travel advisor. Case notes that while these travelers use AI for initial discovery and inspiration, they seek human judgment when it comes to the final commitment of their time and money. This "paradox of abundance" suggests that more choice does not lead to more confidence; it leads to decision fatigue. In this environment, curation—the act of narrowing down infinite options into a trusted few—is no longer a service feature; it is the product itself.

The most nuanced part of Case’s philosophy involves the concept of "friction." In the tech world, friction is almost always viewed as a defect to be eliminated. Silicon Valley has spent decades trying to make every process "frictionless," from one-click purchasing to seamless digital check-ins. Case agrees that "bad friction"—waiting in long security lines, navigating clunky booking interfaces, or sitting on hold with customer service—should be eradicated by AI. However, he introduces the concept of "good friction."

Good friction is the serendipity that makes travel memorable. It is the unplanned conversation with a local artisan, the struggle to navigate a foreign neighborhood that leads to a hidden gem of a restaurant, or the slow pace of a traditional cultural ceremony. These moments require time, effort, and a degree of uncertainty. Case warns that if the industry uses AI to "sand away" all friction, it may accidentally remove the very soul of the travel experience. The challenge for the next generation of hospitality leaders is not just deciding what to automate, but deciding what to protect.

As the industry prepares for the 2026 Skift Global Forum, Case’s perspective serves as a vital counterweight to the "AI-first" mania. While competitors are racing to build the most efficient booking bots, Case is doubling down on "base camps" for exploration—places like Punta Cacique that serve as anchors for real-world adventure. He advocates for a design philosophy where technology handles the logistics so that humans can handle the hospitality.

The economic implications of this shift are profound. If Case is correct, the future of high-margin travel lies not in the software layer, but in the "hard assets" of the physical world and the "soft assets" of human connection. This explains Revolution’s strategic acquisitions of Inspirato and onefinestay, which expanded The Exclusive Collective’s reach. These moves were not just about increasing inventory; they were about scaling a trust-based platform that can serve a family’s needs across different stages of their lives and different types of destinations.

Furthermore, Case’s "Rise of the Rest" initiative—which focuses on investing in startups outside of traditional tech hubs like Silicon Valley, New York, and Boston—parallels his travel philosophy. Just as he believes innovation can happen anywhere, he believes that the most valuable travel experiences are often found in the "authentic" and "off-the-beaten-path" locations that have not yet been commoditized by mass tourism.

In summary, Steve Case’s approach to the AI era is a sophisticated blend of high-tech and high-touch. He views AI as a powerful tool for operational efficiency and data processing, but he remains convinced that the ultimate value in the travel industry will always be rooted in the physical and the personal. By investing in scarcity—whether that be a unique peninsula in Costa Rica or a trust-based membership community—he is positioning his portfolio to thrive in a world where digital abundance is the new baseline. As he joins other industry titans like Brian Chesky of Airbnb and Glenn Fogel of Booking Holdings at the Skift Global Forum, the conversation will likely center on this tension: how to use the most advanced technology in history to preserve the most ancient human desire—the need for genuine connection to people and places. The "Scarcity Shift" is not just an investment strategy; it is a manifesto for the future of hospitality, reminding us that in a world where you can go anywhere virtually, the value of being somewhere truly special in reality has never been higher.