Trump urges world powers to secure Strait of Hormuz

The immediate backdrop to Trump’s appeal was a fresh wave of hostilities. In the early hours of Saturday, the US embassy in Iraq’s capital was struck by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), marking the second such targeting of the diplomatic mission since the conflict began. Security sources in Baghdad confirmed the drone attack to AFP, raising concerns about the security of US personnel and the stability of Iraq, which finds itself increasingly caught between the warring factions. Simultaneously, the Emirati consulate in Iraqi Kurdistan also suffered a second strike within a week, underscoring the widening geographic scope of the hostilities and the vulnerability of diplomatic and economic interests across the Gulf.

Further compounding the volatile situation, thick plumes of black smoke were observed rising over Fujairah, a critical port city in the United Arab Emirates. Fujairah is home to a massive oil storage and export terminal, a linchpin in the global energy supply chain. AFP journalists reported witnessing the smoke shortly after Iran’s military issued a stark warning to UAE civilians, urging them to avoid port areas, a move widely interpreted as a thinly veiled threat of impending attacks on Emirati infrastructure. This incident immediately triggered heightened anxieties in international shipping circles and among energy traders, who are already grappling with unprecedented market volatility.

The economic fallout has been particularly severe, with global oil prices surging by an alarming 40 percent since the commencement of hostilities. This dramatic increase is largely attributed to Iran’s aggressive strategy of disrupting maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s crude oil passes daily. Iran’s actions, coupled with direct attacks on Gulf energy facilities, have fueled a profound sense of uncertainty in global markets, prompting fears of a sustained energy crisis and its potential to derail economic recovery efforts worldwide.

In a significant shift from earlier pronouncements, where he had vowed that the US Navy would "very soon" commence escorting tankers through the Strait, President Trump on Saturday appeared to acknowledge the need for a multilateral approach. Taking to his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump declared, "Many countries… will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe." He specifically named China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom as nations that would "hopefully" contribute to this international maritime security effort. This call reflects the immense logistical and political challenges of unilaterally securing such a critical waterway and signals a recognition that a collective response might be the only viable path to de-escalation.

The appeal for international naval support follows a significant escalation on Friday, when US forces conducted strikes on Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal. Trump asserted that these strikes had "obliterated every MILITARY target" on the island, while deliberately sparing its energy infrastructure. This surgical approach, targeting military assets but avoiding the oil facilities themselves, was likely an attempt to project strength without triggering an even more catastrophic economic or environmental response from Iran. However, the strike on Kharg Island is fraught with peril, given Iran’s prior threats that any US-linked oil and energy firms hit would be "turned into a pile of ashes."

Analysts are closely watching the implications of the Kharg Island strike. Vali Nasr, a prominent expert from Johns Hopkins University, commented on social media that the strike could represent a critical turning point in the conflict, with both sides intensifying their actions in a desperate bid to force a surrender. However, Nasr cautioned that "the end will likely not be Iranian backing off but inflaming the Gulf," suggesting that Iran’s response could further destabilize the already volatile region rather than lead to a cessation of hostilities. This analysis underscores the inherent dangers of the current tit-for-tat escalation, where each strike begets a retaliatory action, pushing the region closer to an all-out war.

Despite facing the superior military might of the US and Israel, Iran has demonstrated an unwavering resolve to continue the fight. Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, acknowledged the intensifying nature of the conflict, stating that the strikes indicated the war was entering a "decisive phase." However, he also tempered expectations, cautioning that it would "continue as long as necessary," implying a protracted and brutal struggle ahead.

The conflict’s reach extended beyond the Gulf. AFP journalists in Jerusalem reported hearing multiple blasts on Saturday, shortly after the Israeli military confirmed the detection of missiles launched from Iran. In Qatar, downtown areas were evacuated as the nation’s air defense systems intercepted two incoming missiles, with accompanying explosions heard across the capital. This broad targeting demonstrates Iran’s willingness to strike across the region, further entangling other nations in the conflict.

In a rare public divergence from its traditional ally, the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas urged Iran to refrain from targeting Gulf neighbors, many of whom have historically supported the Palestinian cause. While Hamas affirmed Tehran’s right to self-defense, this appeal highlights the complex web of alliances and potential fissures emerging within the broader anti-Israel axis as the conflict intensifies. Such a public statement from Hamas underscores the growing apprehension among regional actors about the potential for wider, unintended consequences of the current hostilities.

Meanwhile, Iran continued to endure heavy bombardment, with local media reporting a cascade of strikes across several provinces throughout Saturday. In a chilling development, the Israeli military issued evacuation orders to residents in an industrial zone of Tabriz in northern Iran, signaling an imminent large-scale attack on a significant Iranian urban area. These warnings underscore the increasing lethality and scale of the air campaign against Iran, which is inflicting a heavy human toll. Iran’s health ministry has reported that over 1,200 people have been killed by US and Israeli attacks, though these figures could not be independently verified. The UN refugee agency estimates that up to 3.2 million people have been displaced by the conflict, painting a grim picture of the unfolding humanitarian crisis.

President Trump, in his Truth Social post, declared Iran "totally defeated" and suggested that Tehran was now desperately searching for a deal, which he indicated he was unwilling to consider under the current circumstances. The Pentagon reported that over 15,000 targets in Iran have been hit by US and Israeli forces since the conflict began. A recent report revealed that the initial six days of the war alone cost the United States an staggering $11.3 billion, with 13 US military personnel having tragically lost their lives. These figures highlight the immense financial and human cost of the conflict, which continues to mount with each passing day.

The possibility of American ground troops being deployed to Iran has also been raised by US media. Both The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon had dispatched the Japan-based amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, along with approximately 2,500 Marines, to the region. This deployment of a significant amphibious force, capable of launching air and sea operations, has fueled speculation about potential ground operations or large-scale humanitarian interventions, marking a substantial escalation in the US military posture.

Internally, Iran faces unprecedented political turmoil following the death of its Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, on the opening day of the conflict. While his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was named the new Supreme Leader, he has remained conspicuously absent from public view and is reportedly wounded, leading to a power vacuum and uncertainty within the Islamic Republic’s leadership. This internal instability adds another layer of complexity to the conflict, as it could either weaken Iran’s resolve or provoke a more aggressive stance from factions vying for control.

Capitalizing on this perceived vulnerability, Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran’s last Shah, took to social media on Saturday to declare his readiness to lead a transition "as soon as the Islamic Republic falls." His statement, while potentially aspirational, signals the emergence of alternative leadership claims amid the crisis, further fragmenting Iran’s political landscape. However, the powerful Revolutionary Guards have swiftly responded, threatening a heavy crackdown on any anti-government protests. Thousands were reportedly killed during mass demonstrations in January, and a near-total internet blackout has been imposed since the war began, effectively stifling dissent and controlling the narrative within the country. This draconian measure highlights the regime’s fear of internal collapse and its determination to maintain control at all costs.

The war has also ignited another devastating round of fighting between Israel and the Tehran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. Following Khamenei’s death, Hezbollah launched a series of attacks on Israel, with its leader, Naim Qassem, explicitly labeling the current conflict an "existential battle" for the group and its allies. Israel has retaliated with extensive air and ground assaults across southern Lebanon, resulting in a staggering human cost. Lebanese authorities report at least 826 people killed, with the true toll feared to be much higher.

The humanitarian situation in Lebanon has rapidly deteriorated, with Israel issuing evacuation orders covering hundreds of square kilometers. These directives have displaced hundreds of thousands of people, prompting urgent warnings from international aid organizations about an impending humanitarian disaster. An overnight strike in southern Lebanon tragically killed more than a dozen health workers at a clinic, bringing the total number of paramedics killed this month by Israeli actions to 31, according to health authorities. This targeting of medical personnel and facilities has drawn widespread international condemnation, further exacerbating the crisis.

Amidst the escalating violence, UN chief Antonio Guterres visited Beirut, calling for a diplomatic resolution. Guterres emphasized that "diplomatic avenues are available" to end hostilities, urging all parties to step back from the brink. However, with both sides seemingly entrenched in their positions and the conflict expanding in scope and intensity, the prospects for a swift diplomatic breakthrough appear increasingly dim, leaving the region teetering on the precipice of an even wider and more devastating war.